\u041d\u0430\u0434\u0440\u0443\u043a\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0430 \/ Paper Printed :<\/strong> 05.06.2020<\/p>\n\u0410\u043d\u043e\u0442\u0430\u0446\u0456\u044f \u043c\u043e\u0432\u043e\u044e \u043e\u0440\u0438\u0433\u0456\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0443<\/strong><\/p>\n\u0421\u0442\u0430\u0442\u0442\u044f \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0441\u0432\u044f\u0447\u0435\u043d\u0430 \u0440\u043e\u0437\u0440\u043e\u0431\u0446\u0456 \u043d\u0430\u0443\u043a\u043e\u0432\u043e-\u043f\u0440\u0430\u043a\u0442\u0438\u0447\u043d\u0438\u0445 \u0440\u0435\u043a\u043e\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0434\u0430\u0446\u0456\u0439 \u0434\u043b\u044f \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0439\u043d\u044f\u0442\u0442\u044f \u0435\u0444\u0435\u043a\u0442\u0438\u0432\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043e\u0431\u0491\u0440\u0443\u043d\u0442\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0443\u043f\u0440\u0430\u0432\u043b\u0456\u043d\u0441\u044c\u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0440\u0456\u0448\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044f \u0449\u043e\u0434\u043e \u0434\u043e\u0446\u0456\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0456 \u0440\u0435\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0437\u0430\u0446\u0456\u0457 \u043f\u0456\u0434\u043f\u0440\u0438\u0454\u043c\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e\u043c \u0456\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0446\u0456\u0439\u043d\u043e-\u0456\u043d\u0432\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0438\u0446\u0456\u0439\u043d\u0438\u0445 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0454\u043a\u0442\u0456\u0432 \u0432 \u0443\u043c\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0445 \u043d\u0435\u0432\u0438\u0437\u043d\u0430\u0447\u0435\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0456 \u0442\u0430 \u0440\u0438\u0437\u0438\u043a\u0443. \u0423 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0442\u0442\u0456 \u0440\u043e\u0437\u0433\u043b\u044f\u043d\u0443\u0442\u043e \u0441\u0438\u0442\u0443\u0430\u0446\u0456\u044e \u043d\u0435\u043e\u0431\u0445\u0456\u0434\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0456 \u0432\u0438\u0431\u043e\u0440\u0443 \u043f\u0456\u0434\u043f\u0440\u0438\u0454\u043c\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e\u043c \u043e\u0434\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0437 \u0442\u0440\u044c\u043e\u0445 \u0456\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0446\u0456\u0439\u043d\u043e-\u0456\u043d\u0432\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0438\u0446\u0456\u0439\u043d\u0438\u0445 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0454\u043a\u0442\u0456\u0432, \u044f\u043a\u0456 \u043f\u043b\u0430\u043d\u0443\u0454 \u0440\u0435\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0437\u0443\u0432\u0430\u0442\u0438 \u043f\u0456\u0434\u043f\u0440\u0438\u0454\u043c\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e. \u041a\u0440\u0438\u0442\u0435\u0440\u0456\u0454\u043c \u0435\u0444\u0435\u043a\u0442\u0438\u0432\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0456 \u0432\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0443\u043f\u0430\u0454 \u0447\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0438\u0439 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0432\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0439 \u0434\u043e\u0445\u0456\u0434 (NPV), \u0437\u043d\u0430\u0447\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044f \u043a\u043e\u0442\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043c\u0430\u0439\u0436\u0435 \u043e\u0434\u043d\u0430\u043a\u043e\u0432\u0435 \u0434\u043b\u044f \u0442\u0440\u044c\u043e\u0445 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0454\u043a\u0442\u0456\u0432. \u0417 \u043c\u0435\u0442\u043e\u044e \u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044f \u043f\u0456\u0434\u043f\u0440\u0438\u0454\u043c\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e\u043c \u043d\u0430\u0439\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0448 \u0440\u0438\u0437\u0438\u043a\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0454\u043a\u0442\u0443 \u0437\u0430\u043f\u0440\u043e\u043f\u043e\u043d\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043e \u0434\u043e \u0437\u043d\u0430\u0447\u0435\u043d\u044c \u043f\u043e\u043a\u0430\u0437\u043d\u0438\u043a\u0430 \u0447\u0438\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0432\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0434\u043e\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0443 \u0437\u0430 \u043a\u043e\u0436\u0435\u043d \u0440\u0456\u043a \u0440\u0435\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0437\u0430\u0446\u0456\u0457 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0454\u043a\u0442\u0443 \u0437\u0430\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0441\u0443\u0432\u0430\u0442\u0438 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0438\u0447\u043d\u0438\u0439 \u043c\u0435\u0442\u043e\u0434 \u043e\u0446\u0456\u043d\u043a\u0438 \u0440\u0438\u0437\u0438\u043a\u0443. \u0412 \u0440\u0435\u0437\u0443\u043b\u044c\u0442\u0430\u0442\u0456 \u043a\u043e\u043c\u043f\u043b\u0435\u043a\u0441\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043f\u043e\u0454\u0434\u043d\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044f \u0456 \u0440\u043e\u0437\u0440\u0430\u0445\u0443\u043d\u043a\u0443 NPV \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0454\u043a\u0442\u0456\u0432 \u0442\u0430 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0438\u0447\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043c\u0435\u0442\u043e\u0434\u0443 \u043e\u0446\u0456\u043d\u043a\u0438 \u0440\u0438\u0437\u0438\u043a\u0456\u0432 \u0431\u0443\u043b\u043e \u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u043d\u043e \u043d\u0430\u0439\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0448 \u0440\u0438\u0437\u0438\u043a\u043e\u0432\u0438\u0439 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0454\u043a\u0442.
\n\u041a\u043b\u044e\u0447\u043e\u0432\u0456 \u0441\u043b\u043e\u0432\u0430:<\/strong> \u0440\u0438\u0437\u0438\u043a, \u0456\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0446\u0456\u0439\u043d\u043e-\u0456\u043d\u0432\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0438\u0446\u0456\u0439\u043d\u0438\u0439 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0454\u043a\u0442, \u0447\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0438\u0439 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0432\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0439 \u0434\u043e\u0445\u0456\u0434, \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0438\u0447\u043d\u0438\u0439 \u043c\u0435\u0442\u043e\u0434 \u043e\u0446\u0456\u043d\u043a\u0438 \u0440\u0438\u0437\u0438\u043a\u0443, \u043a\u0456\u043b\u044c\u043a\u0456\u0441\u043d\u0430 \u043e\u0446\u0456\u043d\u043a\u0430 \u0440\u0438\u0437\u0438\u043a\u0443 .<\/p>\n\u0420\u043e\u0437\u0448\u0438\u0440\u0435\u043d\u0430 \u0430\u043d\u043e\u0442\u0430\u0446\u0456\u044f \u0430\u043d\u0433\u043b\u0456\u0439\u0441\u044c\u043a\u043e\u044e \u043c\u043e\u0432\u043e\u044e<\/strong><\/p>\nThe article is devoted to the development of scientific and practical recommendations for making an effective informed management decision on the feasibility of the enterprise to implement innovation and investment projects in conditions of uncertainty and risk. The study considers the situation when the company chooses to invest in one of the three projects for the production of new products A, B and C. The duration of the projects is 6 years. Capital expenditures of Project A – UAH 110 thousand, Project B \u2013 UAH 80 thousand, Project C \u2013 UAH 50 thousand. Annual costs are 10, 12 and 15 thousand UAH. in accordance. The discount rate is 10%. It is necessary to determine the nearest appropriate and least risky project for the criteria of Net Present Value (NPV). As a result of calculations, the NPV Project A amounts to UAH 43,949 thousand, Project B \u2013 UAH 43,500 thousand, Project C \u2013 UAH 43,621 thousand. Due to the fact that NPV projects are almost identical, it is proposed to comprehensively use together their criteria for the effectiveness of the statistical method of risk assessment. As a result of the calculations it is determined that for the indicator of mathematical expectation the lowest risk is Project A, for the weighted modulus of deviation – Project C, for the standard deviation – Project C, for the semi-deviation – Project C, according to the indicator the coefficient of semivariation is Project C, according to the coefficient of asymmetry is Project B, according to the coefficient of variation of asymmetry is Project B, according to the coefficient of excess is Project A, according to the coefficient of variation of excess is Project A. It is better to choose project C used evaluation indicators. Thus, as a result of a complex combination and calculation of NPV projects and a statistical method of risk assessment, the least risky project was selected.
\nKeywords:<\/strong> risk, innovation and investment project, net present value, statistical method of risk assessment, quantitative risk assessment.<\/p>\nReferences<\/strong><\/p>\n\n- Bartashevska Yu. M. Otsinka ryzyku investytsiinykh proektiv pidpryiemstva v protsesi yikh realizatsii \/ Yu. M. Bartashevska \/\/ Yevropeiskyi vektor ekonomichnoho rozvytku. Ekonomichni nauky. – 2014. – \u2116 2. – S. 15\u201321.<\/li>\n
- Bedrii D. I. Statystychnyi metod otsinky ryzykiv naukovykh proektiv \/ D. I. Bedrii \/\/ Tekhnolohycheskyi audyt y rezerv\u044b proyzvodstva. – 2013. – \u2116 4(1). – S. 6-8.<\/li>\n
- Vitlinskyi V. V. Ryzykolohiia v ekonomitsi ta pidpryiemnytstvi: Monohrafiia \/ V. V. Vitlinskyi, H.I.Velykoivanenko. \u2014 K.: KNEU, 2004. \u2014 480 s.<\/li>\n
- Hryhorieva O.Ie. Problemy ryzykiv, shcho vynykaiut pid chas realizatsii innovatsiinykh proektiv, ta metody yikh kilkisnoho vymiriuvannia \/ O.Ie. Hryhorieva \/\/ Visn. Nats. Un-tu “Lviv. politekhnika”. \u2014 2008. \u2014 \u2116 628. \u2014 S. 64\u201471.<\/li>\n
- Doroshenko M. Osoblyvosti otsinky ryzyku investytsiinoho proektu \/ M. Doroshenko \/\/ Visnyk Kyivskoho natsionalnoho torhovelno-ekonomichnoho universytetu. – 2012. – \u2116 5. – S. 66-75.<\/li>\n
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- Kazakova N. A. Zastosuvannia kilkisnykh ta yakisnykh metodiv dlia otsinky ryzykiv budivelno-investytsiinykh proektiv \/ N.\u00a0A.\u00a0Kazakova, Yu. H. Prav, O. A. Marusheva, A. S. Sholom \/\/ Visnyk ekonomiky transportu i promyslovosti. – 2018. – \u2116 61. – S. 150-160.<\/li>\n
- Kuzminykh V.O. Analiz ryzykiv u korporatyvnii systemi upravlinnia proektamy \/ V.O. Kuzminykh, D.V. Khaustov, Ye.\u00a0Iu.\u00a0Korostelova \/\/ Reiestratsiia, zberihannia i obrobka danykh. \u2014 2010. \u2014 T. 12, \u2116 3. \u2014 S. 99-107.<\/li>\n
- Lukianova V. V. Ekonomichnyi ryzyk: navchalnyi posibnyk \/ V. V. Lukianova, T. V. Holovach. – K.: Akademvydav, 2007. – 462 s.<\/li>\n
- Paraniuk Ya. D. Osoblyvosti otsinky ryzyku ta yoho vplyv na efektyvnist innovatsiinykh proektiv \/ Ya. D. Paraniuk \/\/ Ekonomichnyi analiz. – 2017. \u2013 Tom 27. \u2013 \u2116 4. \u2013 S. 315-320.<\/li>\n
- Rishniak I. V. Modeliuvannia protsesu upravlinnia ryzykamy u multyproektnomu seredovyshchi \/ I. V. Rishniak \/\/ Visnyk Natsionalnoho universytetu “Lvivska politekhnika”. Informatsiini systemy ta merezhi. – 2014. – \u2116 783.<\/li>\n
- Tymosh I. Analiz ta otsinka ekonomichnykh ryzykiv pry pryiniatti hospodarskykh rishen \/ I. Tymosh \/\/ Ekonomichnyi analiz. – 2012. – T. 11(3). – S. 75-77.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/journals.khnu.km.ua\/vestnik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/942"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/journals.khnu.km.ua\/vestnik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/journals.khnu.km.ua\/vestnik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/journals.khnu.km.ua\/vestnik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/journals.khnu.km.ua\/vestnik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=942"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/journals.khnu.km.ua\/vestnik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/942\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4271,"href":"https:\/\/journals.khnu.km.ua\/vestnik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/942\/revisions\/4271"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/journals.khnu.km.ua\/vestnik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=942"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/journals.khnu.km.ua\/vestnik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=942"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/journals.khnu.km.ua\/vestnik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=942"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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<\/a> \u0421\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0456\u043d\u043a\u0438: 184-189. \u041d\u043e\u043c\u0435\u0440: \u2116<\/strong>3, 2020 (28<\/strong>2)<\/strong><\/p>\n