Концептуальне моделювання моніторингу середовища розвитку міграційних процесів

КОНЦЕПТУАЛЬНЕ МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ МОНІТОРИНГУ СЕРЕДОВИЩА РОЗВИТКУ МІГРАЦІЙНИХ ПРОЦЕСІВ

CONCEPTUAL MODELING OF MONITORING OF THE ENVIRONMENT OF MIGRATION PROCESSES DEVELOPMENT

Сторінки: 330-338. Номер: №4, Том 2, 2020 (284)

Автори:
МУЛЬСКА О. П.
ДУ «Інститут регіональних досліджень імені М.І. Долішнього НАН України»

MULSKA O.
Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

DOI: https://www.doi.org/10.31891/2307-5740-2020-284-4(2)-58
Надійшла / Paper received : 04.08.2020
Надрукована / Paper Printed : 28.09.2020

Анотація мовою оригіналу

У статті висвітлено моделі моніторингу середовища розвитку міграційних процесів, теорії каузальних зв’язків зовнішньої міграції населення і соціально-економічного розвитку країни. Обґрунтовано принципи-критерії побудови методичного підходу до оцінювання середовища розвитку міграційних процесів, зокрема універсальність, валідність, відтворюваність і компаративність. Представлено авторський методичний алгоритм реалізації моніторингу середовища міграції, архітектоніка якого складається з п’яти ключових етапів: стратегічний, композиційний, якісна оцінка, емпіричний і економетричний.
Ключові слова: міграційні процеси, методика, інтенсивність, моніторинг, середовище, каузальність, соціально-економічний розвиток.

Розширена анотація англійською мовою

The article covers models of monitoring of the environment of migration processes development, the theory of causal relations of external migration of the population and socio-economic development of the country. The principles-criteria for constructing a methodical approach to assessing the environment of migration processes development versatility, validity, reproducibility, and comparative are substantiated.
The strategic stage of analyzing the environment of migration processes development involves formulating a hypothesis on the critical impact of the push-and-pull-environment on the intensity of migration of the country and formulating the purpose of the study. Strateging allows creating a comprehensive study considering the conditions of economic turbulence and prerequisites for the economic development of the country. The main task of the compositional stage of the methodology is the systematization of regressor indicators for each component of the environment of migration processes development and the construction of a system of relevant functions with the possibilities of transformation of qualitative characteristics of factors of formation of positive migration settings. The importance of rationally dividing the push-environment indicators into those that promote or deter the pushing migrants abroad, and the factors that attract immigrants or impede the flow of migrants, has led to the allocation of a stage of qualitative assessment, within which, using expert or statistical methods, rows of stimulants and push-and pull-environment destimulators are formed.
To form preventive measures to intensified migration of the population, as well as to minimize the negative consequences of external migration processes in the context of ensuring intellectual and personnel security, it is proposed to create a passport of the country’s ‘migration potential’. ‘Migration Passport’ is considered as an information-analytical and basis for the implementation of monitoring of critical volumes of external labor and educational migration, which will have a destructive impact on the economic system, as well as determining the optimal range of migration volumes for the country.
Keywords: migration processes, methodology, intensity, monitoring, environment, causality, social and economic development.

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